After a month jumping off yachts in the Mediterranean, Formula One returns to the track full of anticipation as the season powers towards a thrilling finale. Or at least it would were there a thrilling finale to be had. This year’s race is done.
It’s a pity the F1 authorities cannot levy the kind of sanction against runaway leader Max Verstappen under consideration by the French authorities after he was caught exceeding the speed limit approaching the Monaco tunnel in a £3m Aston Martin. The winner in that affair is Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll, who had the satisfaction of the world’s fastest man affirming his product without having to pay a penny for the privilege.
Aston are among a cluster of eager rivals trying to figure out Red Bull’s secret, assuming it does not rest entirely in Verstappen’s genius, so that the grid might at least make a better first of next year’s championship. No blame attaches to Fernando Alonso, acknowledged by Aston as their own superpower after a flying start that saw him register five podium finishes in the opening seven races and even threaten victory at Monaco. So here’s what to expect over the closing ten races, beginning at leaders Red Bull.
Red Bull
A slew of records is available to Verstappen, starting at Zandvoort, where he can equal Sebastian Vettel’s record of nine consecutive wins in a season in front of his home crowd. And with six wins in the final ten races Verstappen would eclipse his own record of 15 wins in a season set last year. Verstappen could also be the first driver to lead more 1,000 laps in a season should he continue at his present rate, spending 78 per cent of races at the front. Verstappen is a further 172 laps from equalling Vettel’s record of 739 laps led in a season.
A difference of 125 points between the drivers is all the evidence Red Bull need to pass judgment on Sergio Perez. The return of Daniel Ricciardo to Alpha Tauri could soon be at the expense of Perez as well as Nyck de Vries. Red Bull have won every race this season, all but two going to Verstappen. Perez has only one job; to finish a close second to Verstappen. In five races Perez has even failed to finish on the podium. His lack of consistency is a mood hoover Red Bull could do without. He has ten races to save his seat.
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton has led from the front after the annus horribilis of 2022. He has dominated his teammate George Russell, whom he leads by 50 points, in race trim if not qualifying, and though his contract beyond this season remains unsigned, he has at least demonstrated his commitment, driving Mercedes into a clear second place in the constructors’ championship.
Mercedes are committed to pushing the development of the 2023 car to secure second place, whilst accepting the big shift in performance necessary to snap Red Bull’s dominance is unlikely until they can make the big design changes required to the chassis and gear box over the winter.
Russell’s second syndrome is arguably as much to do with Hamilton reengaging in 2023 after a season feeling sorry for himself. How Russell compares to Hamilton is one of the fascinating features of the autumn run-in.
Aston Martin
By Aston Martin we mean Alonso, who closed out the pre-summer break a point clear of Hamilton in the race to be the highest non-Red Bull racer. Aston’s stunning start petered out as the established teams pushed on with their pace of development. The requirement to keep the upgrades coming is a lesson banged home by Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren, all of whom have caught and passed Aston on the track if not yet the points table. This, as team principal Mike Krack acknowledges, is where the focus lies.
“It is fair to say we did one step, but we know also that to compete with teams like Ferrari and Mercedes, Red Bull, we have to take a couple more,” Krack said. “Continuity, developing the team, developing the tools, developing the processes. We’re still rearranging some of our organisation consistently to try and identify areas where we can get better, so that you have the firepower that you need if there is a rule change coming, or we need to react quickly.
“The car was very good at the beginning, but others have now caught up. This also shows us our limits very quickly. We are not a top team. You have to first develop your team to be in that league. We are not at that level.”
Ferrari
Ferrari are just five points behind Aston in the constructors’ championship. Both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have almost twice the points of Lance Stroll, which tells you how good Alonso is, and the price Stroll Sr is prepared to pay to indulge his son’s F1 fantasies. Leclerc’s third place at the last race in Spa, where he qualified second, suggest the upgrades Ferrari brought to Belgium and the those scheduled for Monza next week might indeed yield the ten percent performance gains predicted.
The problem has not been over one lap, as Leclerc’s pole in Azerbaijan demonstrated. The issue has been the rate at which Ferrari chewed through tyres in race trim. The target over the closing races is to match Mercedes for pace and push for second in the constructors.
McLaren
The feelgood story before the break. McLaren put their awful start behind them with an astonishing performance hike to rival Aston Martin’s winter rise. From nowhere in Canada in the middle of June, Lando Norris went 4th, 2nd, 2nd at Austria, Silverstone and Hungary to transform the outlook in Woking and alert the sport to his megastar potential.
A correction on the punishing straights of Spa was not unexpected. However, with a new, in-house wind tunnel in place and a box-fresh simulator operational, CEO Zak Brown believes McLaren are on target to compete for the championship next year. Before that a maiden win for Norris, or for flying rookie Oscar Piastri, cannot be discounted.
