The lowest MMR vaccination rates for a decade could lead to a measles outbreak of up to 160,000 cases in London, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned.
In the first six months of this year there have been 128 cases of the disease compared to 54 for the whole of 2022, two-thirds of which were in the capital.
In some areas of London, take up of the MMR jab is below 70 per cent, well below the 95 per cent target needed for herd immunity.
Modelling by the UKHSA shows that, unless vaccination rates improve, there could be a major outbreak of between 40,000 and 160,000 cases.
Susceptibility for measles is particularly high in the 19 to 25-year-old age group, which the UKHSA blamed on low rates of MMR due to false reporting about a link with autism from the jab when they were infants.
The UKHSA assessment for the rest of the UK outside London is currently low, but there could be smaller outbreaks in specific populations including teenagers, young people and under vaccinated communities.
Vaccination rates for MMR have been falling over several years, but this fall accelerated during the pandemic, the agency said.
Across England, the proportion of people who have had two MMR doses by the age of five is 85 per cent. In the capital, the rate is 75 per cent.
The assessment also concludes that there is a high risk of cases linked to overseas travel leading to outbreaks in specific population groups such as young people and under-vaccinated communities.
The NHS is launching a campaign to encourage everyone to check their vaccination status, and parents of infants who have not yet had their MMR jab – with the first dose due at two years of age – are urged to come forward as soon as possible.
Dr Vanessa Saliba, UKHSA consultant epidemiologist, said: “Measles can be a serious infection that can lead to complications especially in young children and those with weakened immune systems. Due to longstanding sub-optimal vaccine uptake there is now a very real risk of seeing big outbreaks in London.
“Measles spreads very easily but is preventable. To help protect ourselves, our families and those around us it is vital we all ensure we are vaccinated with two doses of the MMR vaccine, free on the NHS whatever your age. Parents can check their children’s red book to see if they are up to date or if you’re not sure anyone can call their GP practice. It’s important everyone is fully vaccinated before travelling overseas this summer.
“Nobody wants to see their child or loved ones sick with measles, or put others who are more vulnerable, like babies, at risk. I urge those who have missed their MMR vaccines to catch-up now.”
All children at primary school who have missed one or both doses of the MMR vaccine are being offered the opportunity to get their jabs at school.
Parents of those children will be contacted by the NHS school immunisation service. Parents of younger children or those who are home-schooled can make an appointment with their GP practice or visit a community clinic.
Jane Clegg, regional chief nurse for the NHS in London, said: “Measles can easily spread between unvaccinated people and can be serious, but it is preventable, which is why we continue to encourage Londoners to take up the vaccine – with GPs calling over 10,000 parents of unvaccinated children, and hundreds booking appointments to get vaccinated as a result.
“Cases of measles in the capital remain low but it’s really important that people check that they, and their children, are up to date with their jabs and protected against MMR – and if you have any questions or concerns, please get in touch with your GP practice or local pharmacist for advice. Now’s the time to act to protect yourself and loved ones from measles.”
