Keira Knightley, Sarah Lancashire and Benedict Cumberbatch will lead a raft of new Netflix shows as the streaming giant fights off claims that the end of The Crown marks the passing of its drama golden age.
TV analysts said Netflix’s strategy has shifted over the last five years, with spending on the kind of big-budget prestige dramas that launched the on-demand service being reined in as the streaming platform tightened its belt and invested more in cheaper content like reality shows.
Figures from consumer research firm Ampere Analysis for i revealed that new scripted commissions – drama and comedy shows – had fallen from 79 per cent of Netflix’s total output in 2019 to just 56 per cent this year.
Unscripted shows like dating series Love is Blind and celebrity documentaries starring names such as David Beckham now make up around 44 per cent of Netflix commissions, up from 19 per cent in 2019.
However, insiders insist Netflix has not lessened its commitment to high-end drama showcasing the best of British talent to a global audience.
Cumberbatch plays a grief-stricken father searching for his son in Eric, a six-part series set to air in the coming months written by Bafta-winner Abi Morgan and produced by Sister, the company co-founded by Elisabeth Murdoch.
Knightley stars as a politician’s wife who has a sideline as a spy in espionage thriller Black Doves, which also features Ben Whishaw and Sarah Lancashire, who plays Knightley’s enigmatic spymaster. Filming began in London in late October.
But experts questioned whether Netflix could replace The Crown, which remains one of its most-watched shows despite introducing scenes of Diana’s ghost, described as “morally repellent” by historian AN Wilson, in the sixth and final season, which launched this week.
Richard Broughton, director of Ampere Analysis, told i: “When The Crown first arrived in 2016, it was the quality show people talked about at the watercooler. It made people say ‘I need to sign up and pay for this’ and it was crucial for the Netflix growth phase.”
He said he had noticed “a big shift away from scripted drama to reality shows, documentaries and entertainment formats, which has been exacerbated by the actors’ strike this year.”
A “golden era” of multi-billion dollar spending on prestige award-winning shows like The Crown, House of Cards and Stranger Things could be over.
Although its $17bn content budget dwarfs that of all of the UK’s broadcasters put together, Netflix’s mantra has more recently been one of “sustainable” growth after slamming the brakes on its production output and being forced to make layoffs.
Love is Blind, now on to its fifth season, attracts a younger audience than The Crown and is cheaper to produce, Mr Broughton said.
Netflix, which increased the price of its UK premium subscription package to £17.99 a month, is “more risk averse in commissioning than when they needed titles to really stand out”, he added.
Other new dramas set for release in 2024 include its new Harlan Coben miniseries, Fool Me Once, starring Michelle Keegan as a woman forced to investigate the murder of her husband. It launches on New Year’s Day.
Crime drama also features in the 2024 slate with Guy Ritchie writing and directing The Gentlemen, a TV expansion of his 2019 gangster film.
Netflix is taking a gamble on Greek mythology boosting its tally of 15 million UK subscribers with Kaos, a “darkly-comedic” series starring Jeff Goldblum as a vengeful Zeus.
Tom Harrington, head of television at media consultants Enders Analysis, questioned whether the line-up would retain enough of Netflix’s early-adopters, who first signed up for The Crown and innovative award-winning series like House of Cards and Stranger Things.
Mr Harrington told i: “The Crown is limping a bit to the finish line in terms of critical resonance but its viewing remains very strong. The gap it leaves is an important one.”
He said Netflix should explore a Crown spin-off, in the way that the hit historical drama series Bridgerton spawned a prequel, Queen Charlotte.
“The Crown shows just how popular the Royal Family is as a brand both here and internationally,” Mr Harrington said. “It is surprising that there hasn’t been a greater effort to leverage it more or look at other pockets of modern history to turn into returning scripted programming.”
The Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s $100m Netflix deal delivered its first returns with the Harry & Meghan documentary series, which was the streamer’s third most-watched title of 2022. However the couple have yet to authorise a dramatised version of their story or Harry’s best-selling autobiography Spare.
The Crown creator Peter Morgan disclosed that he does have an idea for a prequel which would predate the reign of Elizabeth II. “But first, I need to do some other things. Second, it would need a unique set of circumstances to come together,” he told Variety.
TV critics might be sniffy about the final season of The Crown, which concludes in 2005 with the marriage of Charles and Camilla and the early relationship between Prince William and Kate Middleton. But viewers who have watched over seven years will stick with it to the end, Mr Broughton predicted.
Although Ampere predicted Netflix would only attract a few hundred-thousand new subscribers this year, as cost of living pressures force households to cut back on entertainment, the streamer has outperformed expectations.
“The password-sharing crackdown had an immediate effect. People quickly chose to sign up rather than go to pirate sites,” Mr Broughton said.
Netflix was approached for comment.
The first four episodes of The Crown season six are now streaming on Netflix. The final six will follow on Thursday 14 December
