When Rishi Sunak stood on the steps of Downing Street just over a year ago, gleaming in his quiet luxury suit, there was a sense of relief – even amongst centre-left people like me. The Boris Johnson and Liz Truss era was such a uniquely destructive, confusing and frightening moment in British politics that the sober, spread-sheet loving, hardworking, head boy vibes of Sunak had to be an improvement, right? And all this talk of “integrity, professionalism and accountability” had to be a good thing, right?
There was also a sense of pride at the UK having its first Prime Minister of Indian heritage. An important moment which Sunak sought to play down, but which nonetheless was a milestone given Britain’s history.
But here we are 12 months on, and all the goodwill and dare I say even hope feels like a distant memory.
It turns out that no one was ready for Rishi – including Rishi himself. His party is taking beating after beating at by-elections. Labour leads 24 points in the latest YouGov and Ipsos polls. His personal ratings have also tanked. According to YouGov, half of those polled think he is a “poor” or “terrible” Prime Minister. He has also dropped 40 points on competence and 50 points on decisiveness, which makes sense when you look at one of his biggest policy announcements to date – scrapping the Manchester leg of HS2 in the most shambolic, drawn-out manner.
Sunak has been struggling since the start. He tried to seize the agenda by setting out his five priorities, but these have become a millstone round his neck. You could argue it was perhaps admirable and brave to do this. It was also spectacularly naïve to promise specifics like “passing new laws to stop small boats” – not reduce them, stop them. It’s this kind of inexperience from Sunak and his team which is really starting to shine.
He’s also never really had to deal with all these bad headlines. He was the golden boy, propelled to fame when Sajid Javid walked away (with some dignity) from the Dominic Cummings led Downing Street operation. As Chancellor, Sunak won approval for dishing out a heap of cash. Now things are very different, and indeed many of his decisions are coming home to roost – fiscally and politically. From furlough to the “eat out to help out” scheme. It’s hard going from flavour of the month to suddenly being past your sell-by date.
He also has proved to be completely unrelatable. Some of that his is eye-watering wealth. It’s also who he is. When you live in a gilded world which has been shaped by the Californian tech bro culture, it’s hard to connect with normal people.
From leaping on private jets like they’re Ubers to the very disciplined “Diary of a CEO” lifestyle of early-morning Peloton workouts, not many people know someone like him. You may follow very rich, highly productive, early risers like him on Instagram, but you wouldn’t want to hang out with them. It doesn’t help that he sounds like a Blue Peter presenter, especially when he’s delivering bad news.
To be fair to him though, the Tory party has been in deep trouble for a long time before he arrived on the scene.
The Government won’t fall just because of crumbling schools or just because of sewage in rivers or corrupt, sex-pest MPs, inflation, or the fact you you can’t see your GP or get on a train. It will be the enormous, overwhelming weight of all these factors. And most Tories accept this – particularly after the by-elections.
Despite the chorus demanding a general election, that probably won’t happen until December 2024 or even January 2025. No PM ever wants to leave Downing Street before they’re forced to. Sunak’s team still believe the economy could improve and that Labour’s lead can only fall. They will also want to see what happens in the US elections. They may hope that a Trump victory energises the right.
So an election is at least a year away and, although you can never quite predict anything in politics with certainty, it’s very hard to push (sewage-infused) water uphill.
That’s not a fun place to be. Knowing that you are on your way out. But that’s where Sunak could still make a difference – if he has the guts. How he conducts himself in this final period could make a huge difference to what happens next.
If he decides to go down the unhinged, US-style culture war path which the likes of Suella Braverman (whom he never should have appointed) and Lee Anderson would advise, the Tories are finished for the foreseeable future, and he will go down as one of the worst Tory leaders in history. OK apart from Liz Truss… Although mercifully for her, she never faced the electorate. But wipe-out and humiliation and taking the party off to the wacky races will be Sunak’s footnote in history.
On the other hand, if he uses what time he has left with some honour, genuinely puts the country first and doesn’t descend into cheap gutter politics, he may blunt the scale of the defeat, which could pay off in the course of time.
If they win, Labour will inherit a huge mess and it will be hard for them to turn things round in a single term. Will the public – who are fickle and demanding – give them a second without a fight?
If Sunak ignores the in-house cranks, gets back to Tory basics of conserving Britain instead of smashing things up and tries to lose with some dignity, he may end up doing way better than even he believes. When the history books are written, how you lose in politics can be as important as how you win.
