At least the unedifying Suella saga has brought a new phrase to the political lexicon. Allies of the former home secretary, sacked on Monday, threaten a “grid of shit” – a torrent of damaging information, ranging from alleged promises made by Rishi Sunak to win Braverman’s support in his battle for the leadership to a “failure” to deliver on a raft of tough policies and a personal “betrayal” of the terms on which he lured her back from the wilderness to serve in one of the most prominent roles in his government.
This does not sound like an empty threat, given that the first items on the grid have already been delivered in Braverman’s three-page resignation letter. The most damaging point is that the PM has failed to focus on repelling the influx of migrant boats on the south coast – and the implication that he never intended to do so.
The threat is a King Lear-like deluge of unwelcome revelations of his handling of the keystone “stop the boats” pledge. Braverman’s allies are threating to bring the political equivalent of the “terrors of the earth” down on a leader struggling on delivery, popularity and to control even ministers he handpicked to sharpen his appeal to the right of the party.
There will be more of this. Braverman is utterly convinced of her own case (to the point of lacking any self-reflection about her own conduct in defying No 10 over the heated article she penned about the pro-Palestinian protests) and revels in her combative style.
The dangers are twofold – and as with many revenge tragedies, they affect the avenger as surely as they hurt the target. The question now is who blinks first. Sunak, by losing the faith of more ministers and MPs as the plan for election readiness morphs into a single issue hobby horse; or Braverman, whose shrill self-righteousness annoys even other punchy figures on the Tory right.
Neither Liz Truss, arguing for more extreme economic remedies nor Kemi Badenoch are much enamored with Braverman and would like to see her self-destruct before the next leadership race.
As this week’s Supreme Court ruling demonstrated, the Rwanda plan is legal Swiss cheese, full of holes which require the Government to double down on changing the law to have a fighting chance of making it work. The only alternative, as voiced by Lee Anderson, the backbench foghorn in the party’s culture wars, is to ignore the law altogether.
Sunak does not want to do that – he is a trapped figure but not a heedless one. One effect of the Suella barrage however is that he has now had to embrace a a more divisive tone, pledging a new treaty with the Rwandan government (which must now be wondering if the UK was such a reliable partner after all), and pledging to “take on” any institutions which stand in his way. In other words, Braverman’s attacks and the manner of her going have forced the PM himself to be the new Suella.
This, in part, explains his decision to bring back David Cameron as an ally in cabinet. Whether or not the ex-PM should count as a centrist or a more traditional Tory with a light coating of modernisation, Cameron does offer Sunak another tone that is punchier than Chancellor Jeremy Hunt (whose reserve on the deliverability of the plan by the election tells its own story).
Migrant boats are a wedge issue with Labour (which will become apparent as it returns as a legislative fight). But it only works to full effect if Sunak is able to make progress on an alternative.
Braverman is also running risks of her own. The first is “Nadine Dorries” syndrome, namely that she conflates her personal interest with frustration about Sunak’s failings. The “grid of shit“ threat will amplify that effect.
Sooner rather than later, Braverman is likely to release her record of communications with Sunak, as they negotiated the terms of her backing and promise of the home secretary role and the terms and conditions applied. Much depends on how open to interpretation this is.
Sunak is a naturally cautious figure with strong advisers around him. The question, when the noxious grid is more exposed to our view, is whether he looks like a figure wronged by an impossibly demanding, monomaniacal character – or whether he took a reckless chance on Braverman turning from lone ranger to team player.
Either way, he is now stuck in a revenge tragedy, with a pursuer who believes that vengeance is best served regularly and piping hot. Braverman is gone – but far from over.
Anne McElvoy is host of the Power Play interview podcast for Politico
